Latest data released by ONS - 16 July 2019

  • Prior +3.1%; revised to +3.2%
  • Average weekly earnings (ex bonus) +3.6% vs +3.5% 3m/y expected
  • Prior +3.4%
  • ILO unemployment rate 3.8% vs 3.8% expected
  • Prior 3.8%
  • Employment change 28k vs 45k expected
  • Prior 32k
  • June jobless claims change 38.0k
  • Prior 23.2k; revised to 24.5k
  • June claimant count rate 3.2%
  • Prior 3.1%

That's a solid beat as wages once again continue to stand out in recent months. The headline ex bonus reading shows the fastest growth in wages since the 3 months to July 2008, with the May reading alone sitting at +3.8% y/y.

In real terms, average weekly earnings clocked in +1.4% 3m/y and the ex bonus reading was +1.7% 3m/y - the fastest growth since October 2015. The fact that the unemployment rate remains steady is a bonus as well.

All that being said, as I mentioned earlier, this isn't one to really change the backdrop of the pound as it doesn't shift the dial on the BOE and the UK economy. Inflationary pressures are holding up, sure. However, economic growth is still seen weakening and Brexit uncertainty continues to be the major factor in affecting the pound.