Latest data released by ONS - 10 July 2019
- Prior -0.4%
- Monthly GDP +0.3% vs +0.1% 3m/3m expected
- Prior +0.3%; revised to +0.4%
- Index of services 0.0% vs +0.1% m/m expecteed
- Prior 0.0%; revised to +0.1%
The headline matches estimates and that's largely attributed to a recovery in car production, which is up by a record 24% m/m following a substantial drop in the month of April. That said, overall services output shows no change on the month, highlighting a longer-term slowdown in the sector and that's a major concern.
As mentioned before this, it would take roughly a +0.8% m/m reading for June to see UK Q2 GDP turn flat so this just reaffirms that we're almost certainly going to see the economy shrink for the first time in seven years in the second quarter.
The pound is holding steady on the data release with cable now at 1.2468, little changed on the day after an earlier fall to 1.2444 before recovering thereafter.
There's also factory activity data released at the same time are as per below:
- Manufacturing production +1.4% vs +2.2% m/m expected
- Prior -3.9%
- Manufacturing production 0.0% vs +1.1% y/y expected
- Prior -0.8%
- Industrial production +1.4% vs +1.5% m/m expected
- Prior -2.7%
- Industrial production +0.9% vs +1.2% y/y expected
- Prior -1.0%
- Construction output +0.6% vs +0.1% m/m expected
- Prior -0.4%
- Construction output +1.7% vs +0.9% y/y expected
- Prior +2.4%
