Latest data released by ONS - 21 January 2020
- Prior +3.2%
- Average weekly earnings (ex bonus) +3.4% vs +3.4% 3m/y expected
- Prior +3.5%
- ILO unemployment rate 3.8% vs 3.8% expected
- Prior 3.8%
- Employment change 208k vs 110k expected
- Prior 24k
- December jobless claims change 14.9k
- Prior 28.8k; revised to 14.9k
- December claimant count rate 3.5%
- Prior 3.5%; revised to 3.4%
On the balance of things, that's a slightly better-than-expected report but nothing too outstanding. I reckon the standout data is that employment rose by 208k leading to the biggest 3-month increase since the three months to January 2019.
Meanwhile, the UK employment rate is seen at its record high of 76.3%.
As for wages, it's still more or less there as the headline keeps steady while the ex bonus reading eases a tad bit compared to October. It's a bit of moderation after the recent rise and not suggestive of a significant fallout just yet.
The pound has crept higher with cable rising to 1.3035 but I don't see this being a major factor in affecting the BOE pricing. If anything, I would fade rallies going into 1.3050.
