Latest data released by ONS - 13 January 2020

  • Prior 0.0%; revised to +0.1%
  • Monthly GDP +0.1% vs -0.1% 3m/3m expected
  • Prior 0.0%; revised to +0.2%

That is a noticeable miss and should pretty much confirm that the UK economy did mildly contract in Q4 2019. The pound has been weighed lower on the data with cable slipping from 1.2990 to a low of 1.2966 as the headline hits the wires.

Just be mindful that this still captures pre-election sentiment, which continues to be largely affected by Brexit and political uncertainty. That said, it's not a good sign and if this is backed up by weaker inflation it might just spur BOE policymakers to ease later this month.

There's also factory activity data released at the same time are as per below:

  • Manufacturing production -1.7% vs -0.2% m/m expected
  • Prior +0.2%; revised to +0.5%
  • Manufacturing production -2.0% vs -1.6% y/y expected
  • Prior -1.2%; revised to -0.3%
  • Industrial production -1.2% vs +0.1% m/m expected
  • Prior +0.1%; revised to +0.4%
  • Industrial production -1.6% vs -1.3% y/y expected
  • Prior -1.3%; revised to -0.6%
  • Construction output +1.9% vs +0.6% m/m expected
  • Prior -2.3%; revised to -2.2%
  • Construction output +2.0% vs -1.4% y/y expected
  • Prior -2.1%; revised to -0.3%