Latest data released by ONS - 17 December 2019

  • Prior +3.6%; revised to +3.7%
  • Average weekly earnings (ex bonus) +3.5% vs +3.4% 3m/y expected
  • Prior +3.6%
  • ILO unemployment rate 3.8% vs 3.9% expected
  • Prior 3.8%
  • Employment change +24k vs -14k expected
  • Prior -58k
  • November jobless claims change 28.8k
  • Prior 33.0k; revised to 26.4k
  • November claimant count rate 3.5%
  • Prior 3.4%

The headline wages reading falls by more than expected to its weakest level since September 2018 but the bright side is that the ex-bonus reading is seen holding up somewhat.

It is a bit of a mixed report as we get weakening wage pressures but employment is seen improving and keeping more steady. Of note, the UK employment rate hit a record high of 76.2% in the three months to October.

Overall, it points to continued moderation in wage pressures from more robust levels seen earlier in the year but the good news is that the labour market continues to remain tight despite economic conditions turning weaker towards the end of the year.