Inflation data from the UK due at 0930 GMT
RBC
- CPI inflation surprised to the downside in January at 1.8% m/m; however, the BoE told us at the February Inflation Report to experience a period of below-target inflation. The next significant move in inflation is only likely to come in April when the Ofgem price cap is lifted, which should add 0.2- 0.3ppts to CPI inflation. The effect of the energy price cap combined with fuel prices making a continued downward contribution means that we see CPI inflation remaining below target for this month and next at 1.9% y/y.
Barclays:
- On the data front, for the Feb. inflation report (Wed.), we forecast that headline CPI inched higher to 2.0% y/y (cons.: 1.9%; last: 1.8%) to hit the BoE target. But we see this as a temporary peak rather than marking the start of a sustained rise in UK inflation pressures, whereas we expect core CPI grew marginally to 2.0% y/y (cons.: 1.8%; last: 1.9%).
We shall return to regular Brexit headline ping pong soon. ;-)
