UK Q2 final GDP +0.4% vs +0.4% q/q prelim

Author: Justin Low | Category: News

Latest data released by ONS - 28 September 2018

  • Final GDP +1.2% vs +1.3% y/y prelim
  • Total business investment -0.7% vs +0.5% q/q prelim
  • Q2 current account balance -£20.3 bn vs -£19.4 bn expected
Preliminary figures can be found here. And the pound on dips on the weaker figure here. Of note, there was a complete miss in total business investment figures as investments actually fell in Q2. Cable took a quick dip to 1.3035 on the back of the release here but has bounced back up to 1.3058 to near unchanged prior to the release.

Looking at the details, household spending was +0.4% q/q while government spending was -0.4% q/q (also revised lower). Meanwhile, there were also negative revisions to Q1 GDP with growth revised lower from +0.2% q/q to +0.1% q/q. ONS cited the downwards revision to largely weaker than previously reported construction output.

Despite the miss in business investments and government spending, it didn't really hurt quarterly the growth estimate and there was only a slight downtick in the yearly estimate. Once can always argue that this is pertaining to growth dating up to six months back but it is what it is.

Market expectations is still for a better Q3 growth forecast so I believe that is helping to temper with the slightly downbeat final report here.

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