Latest data released by ONS - 20 October 2021

  • Prior +3.2%
  • Core CPI +2.9% vs +3.0% y/y expected
  • Prior +3.1%

A mild drop in UK annual inflation but it is still keeping at an elevated level overall so I don't expect that to change the situation ahead of the BOE policy meeting next month.

Looking at the details, the largest upward contribution to September inflation came from transport while restaurants and hotels made the largest downward contribution to the 12-month inflation rate.

On the latter, it is largely due to some easing of the "eat out to help out" scheme that was launched in summer last year so there's that to keep in mind.