Latest data released by ONS - 17 October 2019

  • Prior -0.2%; revised to -0.3%
  • Retail sales +3.1% vs +3.1% y/y expected
  • Prior +2.7%; revised to +2.6%
  • Retail sales (ex autos, fuel) +0.2% vs -0.1% m/m expected
  • Prior -0.3%
  • Retail sales (ex autos, fuel) +3.0% vs +2.9% y/y expected
  • Prior +2.2%

Consumption activity beat out expectations on the month as food store sales bounced after a weak few months but ONS notes that department store sales continued to decline in September. Overall, Q3 retail sales is seen adding only 0.03% to Q3 GDP growth.

On the month, the beat is a little encouraging but when you put into context of the Q3 performance as noted above, it hardly is worth a blink as consumption activity is failing to provide a solid boost to the UK economy.

Cable continues to sit around 1.2780 levels for the moment as the pound continues to be largely driven by Brexit headlines at the moment.