–Updates Version Transmitted At 1131 GMT
–Exit Poll Now Show Conservatives 21 Short Of Majority
–Psephologists Question How Accurate Exit Poll Projections Are

LONDON (MNI), May 7 – The Conservative Party has won its first key
electoral seat, securing victory in Kingswood, a seat which is in the
range of seats that suggests the Conservative could win an outright
majority.

The Conservatives need to secure 326 seats for an outright
majority. While there are variations in how target seats are calculated,
Kingswood is over the 300 seat level in terms of the swing to
Conservatives needed compared to the 2005 election.

The Conservatives won it with a swing of 9.4%, well above any level
that would be needed nationally to secure an overall majority.

Controversial Exit Polls Showed No Overall Conservative Win

The joint exit poll for three UK television companies for the
2010 general election shows the Conservatives just missing an overall
majority, but there are doubts over how accurate this projection is
going to turn out to be.

When the exit polls, put together in a joint effort by two
polling companies, MORI and NOP, were first released the projection was
for the Conservatives to fall 19 seats short of an overall majority, and
this was later revised to 21 seats short.

The television companies, however, did not issue percentage shares
of the vote or the methodology behind the projections. A spokesman for
the BBC said a team of acadamics were still working on the exit polls
and updating projections.

Small variations in projection techniques from the exit polls,
using alternative models, could show an outright Conservative victory.

The anecdotal evidence is turnout in the election has been high,
adding to the uncertainty over the actual outturn.

The first actual vote, for Sunderland South, a safe Labour seat,
showed an 8.4% swing in that seat from Labour to the Conservatives.
which if repeated nationally on uniform national swing models would be
enough to give the Conservatives victory.

With 650 parliamentary seats up for grabs, the revised exit polls
put the Conservatives on 305, Labour on 255 and the Liberal Democrats on
61 seats, leaving the Conservatives 21 seats short of the 326 needed for
an outright majority.

Ihe updated exit poll shows the Conservatives gaining 95 seats,
Labour losing 94 and the Liberal Democrats losing 1 compared to the 2005
election.

With the support of Northern Ireland’s Democratic Unionist Party,
which previously had 9 members of parliament, and factoring in
republican Sinn Fein members not taking up their seats, the
Conservatives could still form a minority government even with some 300
seats and could be have an effective overall majority with some 322
seats.

The result of the first of the key marginal seats will come around
2400 GMT.

Based on percentage swings needed from the previous 2005 election,
as compiled by JP Morgan, the Telford constituency comes 324th on the
Conservative list. Its result is due around 2400 GMT, and a win there
would show the Conservatives back on track for an overall majority.

The immediate reaction of the Conservative leadership, according to
a line given to the BBC, was that the exit poll, if true, showed they
would still have enough parliamentary seats to govern and they would do
whatever needed to form a government.

If the exit polls are right, even if Labour and Liberal Democrat
enter a coalition they would still fall short of an outright majority.

Market reaction has so far been muted. The gilt markets reopen at
2400 GMT, and sterling has turned lower against the dollar.

–London newsroom: 4420 7862 7491 email:drobinson@marketnews.com
lcommons@marketnews.com

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