— Adds Background, Inflation Expectations From 22nd Paragraph
— Japan May Consumer Confidence Index 42.8 Vs Apr 42.0
— Japan May Index Hits Highest Level In 31 Months
— Japan Consumer Confidence Posts 13th Y/Y Rise In Row
— Japan Govt Keeps View: Consumer Conf Continues Picking Up

TOKYO (MNI) – Japan’s Consumer Confidence Survey index posted its
fifth consecutive monthly gain, rising to 42.8 in May from 42.0 in
April, as fears of job and wage cuts continued to recede although fewer
people thought it was a good time to buy durable goods, the Cabinet
Office said on Thursday.

The headline index hit the highest level in 31 months, matching
42.8 marked in October 2007, and all the sub-indexes have also recovered
to the levels seen about three years ago.

The Cabinet Office left its assessment unchanged from the previous
month, saying: “Consumer confidence continued picking up.”

The index has been recovering since the January survey after the
second straight monthly decline in December last year. November’s
decline was the first in 11 months.

The recovery of consumer confidence to the pre-financial crisis
level is likely to ease some concern among Bank of Japan officials about
the drag of the recent slump in stock markets.

Earlier this week, the Cabinet Office said its Economy Watchers’
Survey index for current conditions in Japan slumped to 47.7 in May from
49.8 in April, marking the first monthly drop in six months, as bad
weather conditions dampened consumer spending.

In today’s data, the three out of the four sub-indexes for consumer
confidence — indicating overall economic well-being, income growth and
employment — posted month-on-month gains for the fifth straight month.

Meanwhile, the index for willingness to buy durable goods posted
its first month-to-month decline in six months.

From a year earlier, the overall index rose 7.1 points in May,
marking the 13th consecutive year-on-year rise, after rising 9.6 points
in April.

The index showing sentiment on asset values, which is not included
in the overall consumer confidence index, fell by 0.4 points to 40.2 in
May, reflecting the recent weakness of the Tokyo stock market.

It posted the first month-on-month drop in three months but its
level remains the highest since 40.8 marked in December 2007.

Among consumer confidence index components, the sub-index for
sentiment on overall livelihood rose to 43.0 in May from 42.4 in April,
up for five months in a row. It was the highest level in three years
since May 2007, when the index was at 45.0.

The index rose 6.7 points from a year before, posting the 14th
consecutive y/y gain after rising 8.6 points in April.

The income growth sub-index rose to 41.1 in May from 40.4 in April,
posting the fifth consecutive m/m gain. It was the highest level since
42.2 marked in October 2007.

It rose 5.8 points from a year earlier, up for the 11th straight
month.

The employment conditions sub-index rose to 40.1 in May from 38.3
in April, the fifth consecutive m/m rise. It was the highest level since
40.6 in December 2007. The index continued to rise sharply from a year
earlier, up 12.1 points, for the 11th consecutive y/y gain.

The sub-index for willingness to buy durable goods fell to 46.9 in
May from 47.0 the previous month, down for the first time in six months.
The April level was the highest since July 2009, when it rose to 47.3.

From a year earlier, the index still rose 3.8 points, showing the
14th straight y/y rise.

Until September 2009, the overall index had been recovering
steadily from the record low of 26.2 hit in December 2008. It was
unchanged at 40.5 in October 2009, remaining at the highest level since
42.8 in October 2007, but there were already signs that confidence had
started to erode.

The index reached its most recent peak of 48.4 in February 2007,
but had trended downward till December 2008.

The latest survey was conducted on May 15, covering 6,720
households, of which 5,034 responded.

The consumer confidence index is based on replies to a survey
asking about four aspects of consumer sentiment: the perception of
overall livelihood, income growth, employment conditions and the
willingness to purchase durable goods.

Respondents are asked if they see improvement, deterioration, or no
change in these areas over the coming six months.

The survey also showed that the downward bias in consumer inflation
expectations continued to ease in May as the ratio of people expecting
lower prices in a year’s time fell for the fifth consecutive month,
falling to 13.1% of the total from 16.3%, while that for people
foreseeing higher prices gained for the fifth straight month, rising to
46.0% from 39.2%.

The ratio of people who projected unchanged prices fell to 32.2% in
May from 35.9% in April, down for two months in a row.

The number of people foreseeing higher prices ahead rose for the
first time in 11 months in June 2009 and then dipped in July before
rising briefly in August. It fell for four straight months through
December 2009.

Of those surveyed in May, 13.1% said they expected prices to drop
in a year from now, compared with the record high of 31.9% hit in
December 2009. Of them, 8.8% projected a price drop of less than 2%,
down from 10.9% in April.

The record low for those expecting price drops was 2.4% marked in
July 2008, when crude oil prices hit all-time highs.

Of all the respondents, 46.0% said they expected prices to rise in
a year’s time, compared with the record low of 29.2% marked in December
2009.

Those projecting inflation at or above 5% stood at 4.8% in May, up
from 4.1% in the previous month, while those expecting inflation lower
than 2% accounted for 25.8%, up from 22.7%.

The survey showed that 15.4% of those polled forecast an annual
inflation rate between 2% and 5% in a year’s time, up from 12.4% in the
previous month.

tokyo@marketnews.com
** Market News International Tokyo Newsroom: 81-3-5403-4833 **

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