-Adds BOE MPC Events To Version Transmitted Friday; Medians Unchanged
London, Sep 10 (MNI) – The following are highlights of forecasts
for upcoming U.K. economic indicators and events.
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Monday, Sep 10
Prior
2301/1901 UK Aug RICS Housing Survey
2301/1901 UK Aug RICS Net Price Balance -24
The July RICS survey showed the house price balance, a measure of
how widespread house price falls are, dipped to -24 from -22, with the
price expectations balance for the three months ahead falling to -23
from -18.
With several of the RICS activity indicators also declining that
survey suggested the headline price balance looked set to remain weak in
coming months, and another weak reading in August is likely.
The magnitude of house price falls, however, has been small. Other
surveys show London house prices still posting yearly gains and overall
UK house price deflation running at low levels.
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Tuesday, Sep 11
Prior Median
0830/0430 UK Jul UK Trade Balance
0830/0430 UK Jul UK Trade Goods Balance -10.1 -9.1
0830/0430 UK Jul UK Total Trade Balance -4.3 -3.5
The net trade deficit in Q2 spiked, with net trade knocking a full
percentage point off quarterly GDP growth.
The June trade data were particularly poor, with the total trade
deficit widening to Stg4.3 billion from Stg2.7 billion in May, but some
of this was due to one-off effects, including the Jubilee and a 24.5%
plunge in oil exports.
The July trade deficits are, therefore, expected to come in
markedly narrower than in June.
O900/0500 BOE MPC Ian McCafferty, appointment hearing
at Treasury Select Committee.
McCafferty started his three year term on the MPC on Sep 1 and this
appointment hearing post dates his first policy meeting.
In his former job as economic adviser to business lobby group the
CBI McCafferty sounded dovish, but this will be the first time he will
set out his views free from the shackles of his former employee.
Past experience shows MPC members’ views expressed outside the MPC
are a far from reliable guide to their voting on it. Andrew Sentance,
who became the arch-hawk on the MPC, sounded dovish when he too worked
for the CBI.
1715/1315 BOE MPC David Miles speech at the Scottish Economic
Society – RBS Annual Lecture, Edinburgh.
The leading dove on the MPC now Adam Posen has left, Miles has
consistently set out the case for further stimulus with the economy
flatlining at best.
He believes QE works, that weak demand is likely to have a negative
impact upon productive capacity and that inflation should return
gradually to target.
Miles voted in favour of the Stg50 billion increase in QE in July,
and was very likely one of those who said at the MPC’s August meeting
that “a good case could be made at this meeting for more asset
purchases.”
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Wednesday, Sep 12
Prior Median
0830/0430 UK Sep Labour Market Statistical Summary
0830/0430 UK Aug Claimant Count Change (000s) -5.9 0.0
0830/0430 UK Aug Claimant Count Jobless Rate (%) 4.9 4.9
0830/0430 UK Jul Avg Wk Total Earnings (%3m/3m) 1.6 1.5
0830/0430 UK Jul Avg Wk Earnings, Ex-Bonus (%3m/3m) 1.8 1.9
0830/0430 UK Jul ILO Unemployment Rate (%3m/3m) 8.0 8.0
Headline employment has continued to grow recently despite the
official data showing the economy contracting, with a 201,000 rise in
employment in the three months through June, while the claimant count
posted a surprise fall in July.
This set of labour market data is expected to show things holding
steady. The Olympics may have helped contribute to employment growth in
London, although retailers reported poor trade, but benefit changes are
putting upward pressure on the claimant count.
The median forecast is for no change in the claimant count or the
ILO jobless rate.
1100/0700 BOE MPC Ben Broadbent, speech at Durham Business School
Broadbent is one of the more hawkish members of the MPC, and was
one of only two members to vote against more QE in July.
His previous speeches have been based on detailed, technical
research, with his most recent one covering the chilling effects of the
euro crisis, with the risk of a disorderly outcome already weighing on
business investment and markets.
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For further information contact David Robinson on 4420 7862 7491;
e-mail: drobinson@marketnews.com.
[TOPICS: MABDS$,MTABLE]