US 10s down 1.5 bps to 1.09%

The most-important chart for the forseeable future will be US 10-year yields. There's a risk-off tone in markets but bonds are buying it in a big way.

10-year yields have edged lower but they remain right in the middle of the range. Clearly, this looks like a technical bull flag but it's not showing any signs of breaking out.

US 10s down 1.5 bps to 1.09%

The problem, as Ian Lyngen at BMO points out is that there's no catalyst for a move higher:

In our endeavor to blend the technicals with the realities of the macro landscape however, we find ourselves far less convinced it's simply a matter of time before higher yields come to fruition. Instead, the market will require a further bearish impulse to push back to 1.186% 10-year yields before having any reasonable chance at challenging 1.25%. In pondering the origin of such an impetus, we're left with few compelling alternatives at this point given the strength of the bond bearish developments already brought to bear on a market in which the most crowded trade was already cheaper and steeper.