Consumer confidence data from The Conference Board
- Prior was 135.7 (revised to 135.8)
- Economist estimates ranged from 125-135
- Present situation 177.1vs 170.9 prior -- highest since 2000
- Expectations 107.0 vs 112.2 prior
- Jobs hard-to-get 11.8 vs 12.8 prior
- 1-year inflation expectations 5.0% vs 4.7% prior (prior revised to 4.6%)
At Jackson Hole last week, Fed members repeatedly emphasized the consumer as a key metric in their thinking and at least one highlighted the latest dip in consumer sentiment in the University of Michigan report.
This is a forward-looking indicator and it bodes well for the months ahead even with trade war uncertainty. It's going to make at least a few FOMC members think twice before cutting again in September. Or at the very least it might lead to Powell inserting some less-dovish language into the statement/press conference.
