Highlights of the US August 2021 CPI report
- Prior was +5.4%
- m/m CPI +0.3% vs +0.4% expected
- Prior m/m reading was +0.5%
- Real weekly earnings +0.3% vs -0.1% expected
- Full release (pdf)
Core inflation:
- Ex food and energy +4.0% vs +4.2% y/y expected
- Prior ex food and energy +4.3%
- Core m/m +0.1% vs +0.3% exp -- lowest since Feb
- Prior core m/m +0.3%
These numbers are broadly lower than anticipated and the US dollar is down across the board in response by around 20 pips.
The year-over-year chart (above) is starting to look like a covid case count chart that's beginning to roll over. That's exactly what the Fed is looking for via its 'transitory' narrative.
More details:
- Used cars -1.5% m/m vs +0.2% prior
- Used cars +31.9% y/y
- New vehicles +1.2% vs +1.7% m/m prior
- New vehicles +7.6% y/y
- Shelter +0.2% vs +0.4% m/m prior (this skews a bit lower because of falling hotel prices)
- Energy +2.0% m/m vs +1.6% m/m prior
- Energy +25% y/y
- Food +0.4% m/m vs +0.7% prior
- Airline fares -9.1% m/m
