–September Unemp Rate Still 9.6%; Payrolls Overall -95K; Private +64K

By Denny Gulino

WASHINGTON (MNI) – Beneath the Census bureau layoffs and a soft
local government hiring picture, the September jobs report painted a
picture of more steady but modest private sector gains that have
characterized the U.S. jobs market all year.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics Friday reported that overall
payrolls, including the final big wave of Census layoffs, dropped 95,000
while private sector hiring adding 64,000. Revisions in private payrolls
for the prior two months added another 36,000.

If there were any mild surprises in September’s report, they were
the unemployment rate staying at 9.6% despite expectations for a tenth
increase and the fact public payrolls outside Census showed so much
local government weakness, which carried the overall payrolls losses so
much above what was anticipated.

The chief of the BLS employment section, Tom Nardone, said
speculation that more job applicants would inflate the work force isn’t
panning out.

“Why would they?” he said. “It’s not like things are booming.”

Nardone spoke to Market News International during the half hour
reporters get to review the report in advance of publication.

“You’re getting modest increase in private sector and have been so
far this year,” he said. “You have the issue with Census and that’s all
sort of flushed out now. So you’re not getting big losses.”

“But there’s basically not much going on, plus a little, minus a
little,” he continued. You’re not getting people hired.”

Leaving out April’s jump in the unemployment rate to 9.9%, “a lot’s
the same,” he said. “You’re continuing to see some growth in the private
sector.” Looking back over the year, “the unemployment rate has been
basically where it is the entire year, relatively steady.”

Actually, carried out to three decimals, the September unemployment
rate was improved a tiny bit, to 9.579% from August’s 9.642%.

One measure that got worse in September to set a new record on the
negative side was the increase in the number of persons employed part
time for economic reasons, many of whom had their hours cut back and who
would rather be working full time, up 612,000 in September to a new
high of 9.5 million. Over the last two months, that total has climbed
943,000.

But other fundamental measures, like the employment-population
ratio and labor force participation rate were unchanged.

If there was an ominous tinge to the report it was in the
continuing slackening of local government hiring. “There are budget
issues,” Nardone said. “A lot of local government tax bases are sales
tax and property taxes and those haven’t been growth areas.”

On the government side, the September report showed not only the
expected 77,000 decline in the Census payroll, leaving only 6,000
layoffs to come in that area, but another 76,000 layoffs in local
government, 50,000 of which were in education. September is a month when
education payrolls typically go up, and without seasonal adjustment,
they did, just not has much as in recent past years.

For anyone looking at paycheck contributions to disposable income,
the actual change in payrolls for September was an increase of 428,000
overall including an estimated 11,000 jobs not captured by the monthly
survey, reflecting the seasonal surge in government hiring. Measuring
only private hiring in August, the total without seasonal adjustment
declined 412,000, leaving government adding 840,000 payroll slots,
again, fewer than typical.

Manufacturing lost 6,000 jobs after seasonal adjustment in
September. Looking back, “July had a seasonal issue with autos, but
other than that, it looks like manufacturing has been flat since May,”
Nardone said.

For construction, “there’s not much been going on since February,”
he said. “It’s a little higher than February, but on net, not much.”

Outside of health care, food services “and a little bit in
mining, nothing else had any big movements,” he said. Temporary help
gained 17,000 but that category has “flattened out a bit recently.”

The BLS estimated that it had missed 366,000 new payroll jobs
between April ’09 to March of this year, 0.3% of nonfarm payroll
employment, an average change for the benchmark revision which will
be applied to next January’s totals. Last year the benchmark change was
much larger, 902,000.

Expectations in a Market News International survey centered on an
overall decline of 8,000 with private payrolls up 85,000 and an
unemployment rate up a tenth to 9.7%.

** Market News International Washington Bureau: (202) 371-2121 **

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