US CPI coming up next

Author: Adam Button | Category: News

Inflation data on the agenda

If we take back, the true secular trend of the 2000s is structurally low inflation and it's taken 20 years but governments and central banks have discovered that they can run looser fiscal policy and monetary policy without the inflationary consequences of the 20th century.

In the next few years, we're going to push that regime into the extreme and the only thing that can stop it is inflation.

The CPI data is a bit hotter than PCE and the prior report was +2.3% y/y. That's expected to rise to 2.4% in January and +2.2% ex-food and energy. However any near-term inflationary concerns are likely do be doused by the latest dump in energy prices, which will be more-pronounced in the Feb data.

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