US CPI data due for August today - here is a preview

Author: Eamonn Sheridan | Category: News

I posted earlier on what I am calling as a "Big data day from the US on Thursday" - consumer price inflation the focus - preview

But, as they say in the classics:

Funny, that doesn't look like a young Janet?

And, here we go (bolding mine):

We forecast headline CPI at 0.4% m/m (a soft 0.4%) and 1.9% y/y.
  • For core CPI we forecast 0.1% m/m; this is a strong 0.1% monthly rise, representing an incremental improvement from very soft prints of recent months but suggesting core CPI is still struggling to gather significant momentum.
On an annual basis, we expect core CPI to rise 1.6% y/y. For the NSA CPI index, we expect a reading of 245.4.

The core CPI has fallen short of consensus expectations for the past five months in row. The trend for core services inflation has slowed this year, led by the housing and education categories. At the same time, core goods prices have continued to decline, partly due to an intensification of downward pressure on vehicle prices.
  • We expect the core CPI rose 0.15% m-o-m in August, barely rounding up to 0.2%. The y-o-y rate of core CPI inflation should fall to 1.6%, down from 1.7% in July.
  • We estimate the headline CPI rose 0.3% m-o-m in August, boosted by a 3.7% increase in gasoline prices. The y-o-y rate of CPI inflation should climb to 1.9%, up from 1.7% in July.

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