The inflation data is due at 8.30am NY time, which is 1230 GMT.
Headline expected is 4.7% y/y, up from 4.2% the previous month
- core 3.4% & 3.0% respectively
Earlier previews are here:
- JPM and Goldman Sachs previews
- Yen to stay pressured ahead of US CPI data - Deutsche Sec
- How will the dollar react to Thursday's CPI report? - MUFG
- There's no fear of tomorrow's CPI report in the bond market
One thing not being mentioned much is the data that follows in later months for inflation. The data being released today is for May, and for the June data onwards (not due for another month, of course) the 'base effect' of comparison to very low 2020 (COVID-19 impacted) data will begin to dissipate. That is, the numbers should begin to drop lower (y/y). Which the Fed will point to as justifying their 'transitory' stance.
US bond traders are not looking for persistent inflation, bidding up bonds ahead of the data release.
I'll give myself an out on this and just say that Murphy's Law may very well come into effect with inflationary forces persisting longer and louder than expected.
