US DATA: BofA/ML makes two points about foreign flows after the
TICS report – that Jan TICS data could ‘disappoint’ since Fed custody
holdings of Tsys were -$9b in the month; and that risk-on also may “have
translated into private allocation away from Tsys.” Second, they opine
that “China’s holdings are likely to be revised higher by $200b” when
the Tsy releases its annual foreign portfolio survey on Feb 29. BoFA/ML
says “Last year’s portfolio holdings data reallocated nearly 90% of
monthly UK inflows to China” and if this trend continued China’s
holdings of Tsys (data will be as of Jun’11) could have jumped.