It's a big day for US data on Friday, here are some previews (via Barclays):
We expect June headline CPI to have been flat on the month and to have increased 1.7% y/y.
- We forecast core CPI to have increased 0.2% m/m and 1.7% y/y.
- We view much of the recent weakness CPI as likely to be transitory and expect it gradually to pick up this year and next.
- Nevertheless, the weakness in core goods prices is likely to be more persistent than we previously thought and will likely curb any upward momentum in CPI.
We forecast retail sales to have increased 0.1% m/m in June.
- Manufacturers' reports suggest vehicle sales fell in June and led us to look for a small fall at the retail level.
- Elsewhere, gasoline prices indicate a significant drag to overall sales from gas station sales.
- For sales excluding motor vehicles, we expect a rise of 0.1% m/m.
- Excluding volatile items such as autos, gasoline stations, food services and building materials, we expect retail sales to be up 0.5% m/m.
We expect industrial production to rebound a modest 0.2% m/m in June, after remaining flat in May.
- We expect manufacturing production to increase 0.2% m/m, following a decline the previous month.
- In other details, we expect mining production growth to remain positive and a decline in utilities.
And, if you've read down this far, bonus time! Barclays on University of Michigan Consumer sentiment:
We expect the initial July estimate of consumer sentiment to have fallen slightly, to 94.0 (compared with 95.1 in June), but to remain elevated.
- We view the strong levels of the University of Michigan survey since November as suggesting that consumer confidence is on solid footing and evidence that the weak consumer spending data in Q1 are likely to be temporary.
