There is plenty of data due from the US on 27 September 2019 including PCE and durable goods.
1230GMT brings August data for:
- expected 0.4%, prior 0.1%
and Personal spending
- expected 0.3%, prior 0.6%
- expected 0.1%, prior 0.2% m/m
- expected 1.4%, prior 1.4% y/y
and core PCE deflator
- expected 0.2%, prior 0.2%
- expected 1.8%, prior 1.6%
- expected -1.0%, prior 2.0%
Durable goods excl transport (preliminary)
- expected 0.2%, prior -0.4%
1400GMT brings September preliminary Uni of Michigan Consumer Sentiment
- expected 92.1, prior 92.0
Preview via Scoita:
- 1. PCE: Friday brings out updates for the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, total consumer spending, income growth and the saving rate during August. The main risk here concerns an expected rise in the price deflator for consumer expenditures excluding food and energy (core PCE). From 1.6% y/y in July, the reading could climb to 1.8% and thus make further progress toward the Fed's 2% inflation target. Core PCE inflation bottomed at 1.46% y/y in May and rose to 1.58% in July. If expectations come through for August, then this would be a fairly sudden rebound. It would also help to close the unusually large gap between core CPI inflation and core PCE inflation. Of secondary importance is the expectation that consumer spending should follow retail sales higher in the context of improved income growth that might stabilize the saving rate following its decline from a peak of 8.8% in February to 7.7% in July.
- 2. Durable goods orders: Friday's reading for August is expected to be a soft report all around. Headline orders will be weighed down by soft plane orders. Boeing registered only six new plane orders in August following thirty-one in July. In fact, for the year-to-date, Boeing has had more cancellations than orders, for net new orders equal to minus 85 planes. This is entirely due to the 737 order book that has had minus 183 net orders. All other planes offered by Boeing have had only ninety-eight net orders which is quite soft compared to prior years.