US DATA: Econ at Barcap look for NFP to expand by 150k and for
private payrolls to increase by 160k. “This would imply a 10k decline in
public payrolls, consistent with the softening trend in public sector
layoffs relative to last year.” Barcap adds “underlying our forecast
are jobless claims data, which have reversed their decline in Q1, and
the likelihood that negative weather effects continued into April,
albeit to a lesser extent than in March. We look for the unemployment
rate to remain unchanged at 8.2%, average hourly earnings to increase
0.2%, and hours worked to hold steady at 34.5 with strong expansion in
manufacturing activity.” Meanwhile, GS looks for +125K and look for a
negative payback from the weather related Dec-Feb boost in jobs but at
the same time look for a positive impace from retail related jobs. GS
looks for a 8.2% rate aned says risk is tilted towards an increase in
the rate due to a mainly “mean reversion” between the household survey
(which underlies the unemployment rate) and the establishment survey of
employment (which underlies the nonfarm payroll data).