US DATA: Jan retail sales +0.3% overall, +0.3% ex auto, and +0.2% ex
auto and gas; Dec sales were rev lower so Q1 has a lower trajectory.
This is below expectations and suggests consumption was slowing. Jan
sales were held down by -0.3% furniture, -2.9% bldg materials, -0.3%
clothing, -1.3% sporting goods, and -0.7% restaurants. The gains were in
autos +0.5%, electronics +0.3%, +1.3% food, +0.5% health, and +1.4% gas.
Once again, Jan chain store results appeared to have out-paced general
sales, as they did in Dec. There are still reasons to think sales can
pick up ahead: payroll tax cut will boost take-home pay and payrolls are
slowly rising, as are wealth effects from higher stocks and steadying
home values. So it’s too soon to downgrade the Q1 outlook.