US DATA: March 13 FOMC mins show Fed put off discussion of future
policy, thus fail to clarify QE: “several participants suggested that it
could be helpful to discuss at a future meeting some alternative
economic scenarios and the monetary policy responses that might be seen
as appropriate.” On forward guidance: it “is conditional on economic
developments, and members concurred that the date given in the statement
would be subject to revision in response to significant changes in the
economic outlook. While recent employment data had been encouraging, a
number of members perceived a nonnegligible risk that improvements in
employment could diminish as the yr progressed, as in 2010 and 2011.”
Support for more QE appears weak: only “a couple of members indicated
that the initiation of additional stimulus could become necessary if the
economy lost momentum or if inflation seemed likely to remain below its
mandate-consistent rate of 2%.” FOMC saw US econ expanding moderately;
outlook “broadly similar” to Jan. not changing ’13-14 f’cast. Labor mkt
contin’d to improve “but almost all saw unemplymt rate” still elevated.