By Kasra Kangarloo

WASHINGTON (MNI) – The U.S. retail sales figure for November is
expected to post another modest improvement, reflecting the subdued pace
at which the economy is recovering.

According to a survey of economists by Market News International,
November retail sales are expected to rise by 0.6% and retail sales
excluding automobiles are forecasted to rise by 0.7%.

If Tuesday’s retail sales number posts a gain it would mark the
fifth consecutive monthly rise in the headline sales figure, following a
1.2% increase in October.

“The holiday shopping season has been off to a decent start, and
surveys of consumer confidence have been optimistic,” Paul Dales,
economist at Capital Economics, said in a telephone interview.

“This suggests consumption growth in Q4 might be fairly
respectable,” Dales added.

Consumer confidence data for the month of November includes surveys
such as the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index and the Thomson
Reuters/University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index.

The Conference Board’s index jumped more than four points in
November to 54.1 from 49.9 in October, while the Reuters/University of
Michigan Index rose by 3.9 points to 71.6. Both figures are the highest
since June.

Even though consumer spending has steadily increased over the past
few months, the broader economy remains constrained by persistently high
unemployment and a weak housing market. New home sales have been near
record lows since the expiration of the home buyers’ tax credits, and
the unemployment rate has remained over 9.5% throughout the year.

Other relevant data have also suggested a strong performance by the
retail sector in November. The International Council of Shopping Centers
(ICSC) chain store sales data and domestic auto sales have both seen an
uptick. Gas prices have also increased modestly over the month according
to the Energy Information Administration.

The November U.S. retail sales report will be released Tuesday at
8:30 a.m ET by the Department of Commerce.

— Kasra Kangarloo is a reporter for Need to Know News

** Market News International Washington Bureau: 202-371-2121 **

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