December 2019 non-farm payrolls data:
- Prior was +266K (revised to 256K)
- Estimates ranged from +125K to +210K
- Two month net revision -14K
- Unemployment rate 3.5% vs 3.5% expected (prior 3.5%)
- Participation rate 63.2% vs 63.2% prior
- Avg hourly earnings +0.1% m/m vs +0.3% exp
- Prior avg hourly earnings +0.2% (revised to +0.3%)
- Avg hourly earnings +2.9% y/y vs +3.1% exp (weakest since July 2018)
- Prior avg hourly earnings 3.1%
- Avg weekly hours 34.3 vs 34.4 exp
- Private payrolls +139K vs +153K exp
- Manufacturing -12K vs +5K exp
- U6 underemployment 6.7% vs 6.9%
- Full report
The wage numbers are light and that's led to some dollar selling on the headline. Notable job gains occurred in retail trade (+41K), health care (+28K) and the leisure and hospitality sector (+40K), while mining was soft (-8K).
The average for the year was 176K, which is the weakest since 2011 but is still excellent at this point in the cycle and with unemployment so low. Next month we get benchmark revisions though, so that could all change.
