Typical pre-NFP day

The US dollar has found a bid today despite US 10-year yields falling back towards 0.50%. The theme is modest risk aversion as Congressional negotiations on stimulus stall.

Schumer is on the wires saying talks are 'arduous' because Republicans don't see the need for unemployment payments.

This is all part of the typical pre-payrolls dance. It's a more-important report in terms of market focus because uncertainty is high. The consensus has settled at 1.5m jobs with estimates from -600K to +3210K. Even a miss of 500K might lead to meaningful moves into the weekend.

In terms of market moves, this small bump in the dollar was reversed by some fixing flows with AUD/USD getting a notable bid.

Typical pre-NFP day