Volatile at the best of times so we need to look under the hood
The problem with the durable goods report is that it concentrates on the monthly numbers too much. As there are some big and very big ticket items in the report (vehicles, aircraft etc) there's a lot to digest.
Taking a wider view the year on year numbers probably give us a better idea of what's going on.
US durable goods y/y
Headline durables (nsa) are running at 4.6%. Ex-transport (sa) is worse at -0.6% but has been improving over recent months.
If we're looking for trends in this indicator we would want to see sustained m/m growth and continued y/y growth. The month on month numbers can barely string tow ins together on the trot.
The dollar can move a great deal on the m/m numbers but that's short term noise. Look to the longer term to see whether they are good or bad for the US economy.
