By Kasra Kangarloo

WASHINGTON (MNI) – The story has not changed — the latest polls
for the U.S. presidential election show a national dead-heat between
President Barack Obama and Republican challenger Mitt Romney, while data
from key battleground states show an edge for the president.

The president still holds a slim but durable lead in three key
swing states — Ohio, Nevada and Wisconsin — each of which show between
two- and three-point leads according to polling averages from Real Clear
Politics, Talking Points Memo and the Huffington Post.

An Obama victory in these three states would put the
president at 271 electoral votes, just clear of the threshold for
reelection.

Romney would need to take at least one of these states and then
pull an impressive break-away in a number of others in order to seal a
win. Based on the latest data, however, even the first part of that
equation has grown increasingly unlikely.

In Ohio, the latest from CBS/New York Times poll shows a five-point
lead for the president, while CNN and Public Policy Polling give him a
four-point lead. With less than a week until election day, there appears
to be no evidence that Romney will make any gains in this key
battleground state.

Then there are the remaining swing states — Florida, Virginia,
Colorado, North Carolina, Iowa, New Hampshire and Pennsylvania. Among
those, only North Carolina has effectively broken toward Romney since
the first presidential debate.

Florida, Virginia and Colorado, three critical states, are each
within a point according to the latest polling averages. The same goes
for less critical states such as Iowa and New Hampshire. Pennsylvania,
at this point, is arguably not even a swing state, and will very likely
go to Obama.

The latest national polls, meanwhile, show a toss-up, pointing to
the very real possibility of a split between the electoral college and
popular vote.

Gallup’s survey of likely voters remains a wide outlier, showing a
five-point Romney lead, while the latest from ABC News/Washington Post,
CBS News/New York Times and Pew Research all put the race within a
point.

In short, the odds remain in Obama’s favor. Though the national
race shows an even split down the center, the electoral college is
showing a consistent Obama lead.

There was some anticipation among observers that the effects of
Hurricane Sandy could disrupt the election, mainly by affecting turnout
in Virginia and Pennsylvania, both of which were in the path of the
storm.

These two states, however, saw relatively modest effects — the
brunt of the storm’s disruptive impacts were seen in New York and New
Jersey, both already decidedly in Obama’s camp.

Poll results compiled by MNI from the organizations beginning 7/1.

Results as of: October 17, 2012
Margin
Survey Sample of
Dates Organization Obama Chg Romney Chg Size Error

7-day rolling Gallup Tracking 48% +2 48% +1 1387 RV 3.0%
46% -1 51% 0 2700 LV 2.0%
3-day rolling Rasmussen Tracking 47% 0 49% -1 1500 LV 3.0%
10/26-10/29 ABC News/Wash. Post 48% 0 49% 0 1271 LV 3.5%
10/25-10/28 CBS News/NY Times 48% -1 47% +1 563 LV 4.0%
10/24-10/28 Pew Research 47% +2 47% -2 1678 RV 2.9%
10/22-10/25 POLITICO/GWU 49% +2 48% -1 1000 LV 3.1%
10/26-10/30 Reuters/Ipsos 47% +1 46% -1 2356 LV 3.4%
10/22-10/27 IBD/TIPP 45% -2 44% 0 930 LV 3.5%

10/22-10/24 Public Policy Polling 49% +1 48% 0 1200 LV 2.8%
10/19-10/23 Associated Press/GfK 45% 47% 839 LV 4.2%

10/17-10/20 NBC/WSJ 47% -2 47% +1 816 LV 3.4%
10/18-10/20 Wash. Times/JZ Analytics 50% 47% 800 LV 3.5%

10/13-10/15 YouGov/Economist 47% -2 46% +1 826 LV 3.5%

10/12-10/13 Newsmax/Zogby 47% -2 44% +3 863 LV 3.4%

10/08-10/10 Monmouth U. 46% -2 47% +6 1571 LV 2.5%
10/09-10/09 Fox News 45% -3 46% +2 1092 LV 3.0%

9/26-9/30 NPR 51% 44% 800 LV 4.0%
9/28-9/30 CNN/ORC 50% +2 47% -1 783 LV 3.5%
9/27-9/30 National Journal 47% 47% LV 4.5%
9/25-9/30 Quinnipiac 49% +3 45% +2 1912 LV 2.2%

9/21-9/24 Bloomberg 49% 43% 789 LV 3.5%

9/08-9/12 Democracy Corps 50% 45% 1000 LV 3.1%

8/16-8/19 Daily Kos/SEIU 49% +2 45% 0 1000 RV 3.1%
8/15-8/16 Angus Reid 45% -2 49% +2 1007 LV 3.1%

8/03-8/10 IBD/CSM/TIPP 46% 39% 828 RV 3.5%

7/09-7/12 D.C./R.R./NPR 47% 45% 1000 LV 3.1%
7/09-7/11 McClatchy/Marist 48% 46% 849 RV 3.5%

RV = Registered voters
LV = Likely voters
G = General population
Chg = Change from previous poll. Change for rolling polls from one week prior.

** MNI Washington Bureau (202) 371-2121 **

[TOPICS: MAUDT$,M$U$$$,MCU$$$,MTABLE,MAUDS$]