By Kasra Kangarloo

WASHINGTON (MNI) – Just a day before a second key presidential
debate, a trio of polls out Monday morning show a much narrower race for
the presidential election, with President Barack Obama eking out a small
lead over Republican challenger Mitt Romney.

IBD/TIPP and Politico/GWU each show a one-point lead for the
president, both unchanged, respectively from the previous week’s
polling. The ABC News/Washington Post poll, meanwhile, shows a
three-point lead for the president.

All three polls fall within the margin of the error, making the
race a definitive toss-up.

This still qualifies as good news for the president, however, as
the fallout from his universally rebuked first debate performance seems
to have more or less subsided.

The polling now shows the race to be quite literally back where it
started — within the margin of error, but still tilting in Obama’s
favor.

A pair of internet polls also show roughly the same result: a
Reuters/Ipsos poll has reverted back to a one-point Obama lead from a
three-point Romney lead the previous week, while a Newsmax/Zogby poll
shows a three-point lead for the president.

With the race this close, Tuesday night’s second presidential
debate could shift the tides once again.

Poll results compiled by MNI from the organizations beginning 7/1.

Results as of: October 11, 2012
Margin
Survey Sample of
Dates Organization Obama Chg Romney Chg Size Error

7-day rolling Gallup Tracking 48% +1 46% 0 1387 RV 3.0%
3-day rolling Rasmussen Tracking 48% 0 49% +2 1500 LV 3.0%
10/10-10/13 ABC News/Wash. Post 49% 0 46% -1 923 LV 3.5%
10/07-10/11 POLITICO/GWU 49% 0 48% 0 1000 RV 3.1%
10/08-10/13 IBD/TIPP 47% 0 46% 0 804 LV 3.5%
10/10-10/14 Reuters/Ipsos 46% +2 45% -2 1092 LV 3.1%
10/12-10/13 Newsmax/Zogby 47% -2 44% +3 863 LV 3.4%

10/08-10/10 Monmouth U. 46% -2 47% +6 1571 LV 2.5%
10/09-10/09 Fox News 45% -3 46% +2 1092 LV 3.0%

10/04-10/07 Pew Research 45% -6 49% +6 1112 LV 3.4%

9/26-9/30 NBC/WSJ 49% -1 46% +2 832 LV 3.4%
9/26-9/30 NPR 51% 44% 800 LV 4.0%
9/28-9/30 CNN/ORC 50% +2 47% -1 783 LV 3.5%
9/27-9/30 National Journal 47% 47% LV 4.5%
9/25-9/30 Quinnipiac 49% +3 45% +2 1912 LV 2.2%

9/21-9/24 Bloomberg 49% 43% 789 LV 3.5%

9/08-9/12 CBS/New York Times 49% 46% 1162 LV 3.0%
9/08-9/12 Democracy Corps 50% 45% 1000 LV 3.1%
9/08-9/10 Economist/YouGov 49% +3 45% -2 1000 RV 3.9%

8/16-8/19 Daily Kos/SEIU 49% +2 45% 0 1000 RV 3.1%
8/15-8/16 Angus Reid 45% -2 49% +2 1007 LV 3.1%

8/03-8/10 IBD/CSM/TIPP 46% 39% 828 RV 3.5%

7/09-7/12 D.C./R.R./NPR 47% 45% 1000 LV 3.1%
7/09-7/11 McClatchy/Marist 48% 46% 849 RV 3.5%
7/06-7/08 JZ Analytics/Wash. Times 42% 43% 800 LV 3.5%

RV = Registered voters
LV = Likely voters
G = General population
Chg = Change from previous poll. Change for rolling polls from one week prior.

** MNI Washington Bureau (202) 371-2121 **

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