By Kasra Kangarloo

WASHINGTON (MNI) – The latest poll from Pew Research puts
Republican candidate Mitt Romney four points ahead of President Barack
Obama in the presidential election, a twelve-point swing in the
challenger’s favor.

The poll is the strongest evidence yet that Romney may have
fundamentally changed the race after last week’s debate — in which he
was declared the winner by a strong majority of voters.

Despite the dramatic swing, however, the poll remains an outlier
among the latest batch of data.

The latest poll from Gallup still shows a decisive advantage for
the president, while the Rasmussen poll shows a dead-heat.

A POLITICO/GWU poll shows a roughly unchanged reading, with Obama
ahead just a point, though most of the interviews were conducted prior
to the debate.

More data will be needed to determine the extent of the damage to
Obama’s campaign following the debate, although the September jobs
report, which showed a sudden drop in the unemployment rate to 7.8%,
could swing the polls back in his favor.

Poll results compiled by MNI from the organizations beginning 7/1.

Results as of: October 9, 2012
Margin
Survey Sample of
Dates Organization Obama Chg Romney Chg Size Error

7-day rolling Gallup Tracking 50% 0 45% +1 1387 RV 3.0%
3-day rolling Rasmussen Tracking 48% 0 48% +1 1500 LV 3.0%
10/4-10/7 Pew Research 45% -6 49% +6 1112 LV 3.4%
10/1-10/4 POLITICO/GWU 49% 0 48% +1 1000 LV 3.1%

9/26-9/30 NBC/WSJ 49% -1 46% +2 832 LV 3.4%
9/26-9/30 NPR 51% 44% 800 LV 4.0%
9/28-9/30 CNN/ORC 50% +2 47% -1 783 LV 3.5%
9/27-9/30 National Journal 47% 47% LV 4.5%
9/25-9/30 Quinnipiac 49% +3 45% +2 1912 LV 2.2%

9/26-9/29 ABC News/Wash. Post 49% -4 47% +7 813 LV 4.0%
9/24-9/26 Fox News 48% +2 43% +1 1092 LV 3.0%
9/21-9/24 Bloomberg 49% 43% 789 LV 3.5%

9/21-9/22 Zogby 49% 41% 860 LV 3.4%
9/17-9/21 Reuters/Ipsos 48% +5 42% -1 1312 LV 3.0%
9/16-9/20 POLITICO/GWU 50% +2 47% 0 1000 RV 3.1%
9/13-9/16 Monmouth U. 48% +3 41% 0 1571 2.5%

9/08-9/12 CBS/New York Times 49% 46% 1162 LV 3.0%
9/08-9/12 Democracy Corps 50% 45% 1000 LV 3.1%
9/08-9/10 Economist/YouGov 49% +3 45% -2 1000 RV 3.9%

8/16-8/19 Daily Kos/SEIU 49% +2 45% 0 1000 RV 3.1%
8/15-8/16 Angus Reid 45% -2 49% +2 1007 LV 3.1%

8/03-8/10 IBD/CSM/TIPP 46% 39% 828 RV 3.5%

7/09-7/12 D.C./R.R./NPR 47% 45% 1000 LV 3.1%
7/09-7/11 McClatchy/Marist 48% 46% 849 RV 3.5%
7/06-7/08 JZ Analytics/Wash. Times 42% 43% 800 LV 3.5%

RV = Registered voters
LV = Likely voters
G = General population
Chg = Change from previous poll. Change for rolling polls from one week prior.

** MNI Washington Bureau (202) 371-2121 **

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