By Kasra Kangarloo

WASHINGTON (MNI) – With a wave of post-debate polls due out next
week, it is worth taking stock of the current state of the U.S.
presidential race, which still shows a slight advantage for President
Barack Obama.

Following a strong performance in the first presidential debate,
Republican challenger Mitt Romney was able to close a polling gap that
had grown considerable in September, casting serious doubt over his
chances heading into the final month of the race.

Over the past week, however, polls have more or less drifted back
to the levels seen for much of the summer, which suggested a
neck-and-neck race that none the less tilted slightly in favor of the
incumbent.

Neither candidate definitively holds the lead at this point in the
race — a trio of internet polls released this week from Reuters/Ipsos,
YouGov/Economist and IBD/TIPP all show a modest lead for Obama, though
they still fall within the margin of error.

Polls from POLITICO/GWU and ABC News/Washington Post show roughly
the same result.

Gallup’s likely voter model, which screens its interviews to
determine which individuals are most likely to vote, shows that Romney
has extended his lead to seven points over the last couple weeks.

This, however, appears to be an outlier, though more data will be
needed to fully determine the extent to which Romney’s post-debate boom
has subsided.

Gallup’s registered voter poll, which has been used through the
duration of the campaign, still shows a competitive race — with Obama
up a point at 48%.

Impressions of the second presidential debate, while not presenting
an overwhelming victory for either candidate, generally favor the
president.

Snap polls conducted right after the debate showed that Obama was
declared the winner by a slight majority of viewers — CBS news had 37%
declaring Obama the winner, 30% for Romney. Following the first debate,
46% gave the victory to Romney, compared to 22% for Obama.

CNN’s poll was even more narrow: 46% voted Obama the victor of the
second debate, while 39% voted Romney.

Post-debate snap polls, however, have a shaky track record, so it
is helpful to consider the tone of post-debate media coverage, which
tends to shape viewer’s perceptions after the fact.

This is where Romney’s real problem could lie, for the coverage has
been dominated by a handful of unsavory moments for the Republican
challenger. Most notable are the now-infamous “binders full of women”
comment and the on-air fact check by moderator Candy Crowley, after
Romney falsely asserted that the president had not labeled the attacks
on the U.S. consulate in Benghazi — in remarks the day after — a
“terrorist attack.”

While these comments are not meaningful in terms of assessing
Romney’s policies or overall fitness for the presidency, they
none-the-less cast the candidate in an unflattering light.

Romney has also come under fire for his stated position on women’s
issues during the debate — namely insurance coverage for contraception
and his unclear stance on the Lily Ledbetter Act — which could also
hurt the progress he has made among female voters.

But, by the same token, Romney also very effectively pressed the
president on his economic record. Given that the second debate pulled in
more than 65 million viewers, according to the Nielsen ratings, the race
for the White House remains anybody’s game.

Poll results compiled by MNI from the organizations beginning 7/1.

Results as of: October 11, 2012
Margin
Survey Sample of
Dates Organization Obama Chg Romney Chg Size Error

7-day rolling Gallup Tracking 48% 0 47% +1 1387 RV 3.0%
45% 0 52% +1 2700 LV 2.0%
3-day rolling Rasmussen Tracking 47% -1 49% 0 1500 LV 3.0%
10/13-10/17 Reuters/Ipsos 47% +1 44% -1 1491 RV 2.9%
10/12-10/17 IBD/TIPP 46% -1 46% 0 909 LV 3.5%
10/13-10/15 YouGov/Economist 47% -2 46% +1 826 LV 3.5%

10/10-10/13 ABC News/Wash. Post 49% 0 46% -1 923 LV 3.5%
10/07-10/11 POLITICO/GWU 49% 0 48% 0 1000 RV 3.1%
10/12-10/13 Newsmax/Zogby 47% -2 44% +3 863 LV 3.4%

10/08-10/10 Monmouth U. 46% -2 47% +6 1571 LV 2.5%
10/09-10/09 Fox News 45% -3 46% +2 1092 LV 3.0%

10/04-10/07 Pew Research 45% -6 49% +6 1112 LV 3.4%

9/26-9/30 NBC/WSJ 49% -1 46% +2 832 LV 3.4%
9/26-9/30 NPR 51% 44% 800 LV 4.0%
9/28-9/30 CNN/ORC 50% +2 47% -1 783 LV 3.5%
9/27-9/30 National Journal 47% 47% LV 4.5%
9/25-9/30 Quinnipiac 49% +3 45% +2 1912 LV 2.2%

9/21-9/24 Bloomberg 49% 43% 789 LV 3.5%

9/08-9/12 CBS/New York Times 49% 46% 1162 LV 3.0%
9/08-9/12 Democracy Corps 50% 45% 1000 LV 3.1%

8/16-8/19 Daily Kos/SEIU 49% +2 45% 0 1000 RV 3.1%
8/15-8/16 Angus Reid 45% -2 49% +2 1007 LV 3.1%

8/03-8/10 IBD/CSM/TIPP 46% 39% 828 RV 3.5%

7/09-7/12 D.C./R.R./NPR 47% 45% 1000 LV 3.1%
7/09-7/11 McClatchy/Marist 48% 46% 849 RV 3.5%
7/06-7/08 JZ Analytics/Wash. Times 42% 43% 800 LV 3.5%

RV = Registered voters
LV = Likely voters
G = General population
Chg = Change from previous poll. Change for rolling polls from one week prior.

** MNI Washington Bureau (202) 371-2121 **

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