US Empire state manufacturing report preview 16 March 2015
At 12.30 gmt we get the Empire State manufacturing numbers for March and they kick off the final month in Q1
The US has seen less than impressive numbers and the weather has been blamed for a lot of that. Still, however you slice it, it doesn't bode well for part of Q1's GDP
US manufacturing
Aside from the headline numbers, what has been notable is the drop in employment across virtually all the main and regional Fed data points. We know the jobs market is doing well but at some point things are going to start flattening off and the employment numbers on these reports suggests that could be happening sooner rather than later. No one has fallen into contraction yet but the ISM is the closest with the employment index at 51.4. Empire employment fell to 10.11 in Feb from 13.68 in Jan.
It's not a big number in itself but it's often a great gauge for the other data to come in the month. Today we're expecting a slight jump to 8.00 from 7.78. If there's more weather related weakness the market might brush it off but it won't gloss over the fact that the trend is still possibly pointing down from the highs seen last year.
With the FOMC on Wednesday the market might look at this number with a bit more scrutiny than it usually does, and it's closely followed by Feb Industrial production (exp in at 0.2%, matching Jan).
A big miss in the Empire and IP data will probably see the dollar at least test 121.00 and maybe a bit more with the FOMC just around the corner, but keep an eye out for a weather brush off bounce
