A record run of 113 straight months of jobs growth will come to an end today
The non-farm payrolls report today is merely going to offer investors some food for thought rather than any real indication of present labour market conditions in the US economy.
The record-breaking 6.6 million unemployment benefits last week is a much better reflection of the current situation as the jobs report today will only cover data surveyed until the middle of March - before the larger portion of the country entered lockdown mode.
This is exactly similar to the ADP employment report that we saw earlier this week.
So, while expectation is that we will see the US economy shed jobs last month - the first time after a historic 113 months of jobs growth - it hardly means much because it won't capture the full extent of the deterioration in the labour market.
The expectations also reaffirm that, with headline non-farm payrolls estimated at -100K while the unemployment rate is estimated to only tick higher to 3.8% from 3.5% previously.
Considering the above, does the report matter?
In terms of telling us what we don't know, it won't. We already know that the unemployment rate should be in double digits by now so this report is lagging.
But much like the jobless claims report yesterday, the release today offers something for the market to think about ahead of the weekend. If it stirs up more doubts/uncertainty, then that may not necessarily be a good thing for risk.
However, the market will also be eyeing the launch of the US small business lending program as well as more remarks about the oil market. I would argue that those and other headlines (Fed or Trump perhaps?) will overshadow the jobs report today in terms of significance.
