By Yali N’Diaye

WASHINGTON (MNI) – Data released Wednesday by the Investment
Company Institute showed long-term municipal bond funds registered their
first inflow in 27 weeks.

Despite the strong rally since early April in the municipal bond
market, long-term municipal bond funds had continued to record outflows
over the recent weeks, albeit at a slowing pace.

In the week ended May 11, however, they registered a $38 million
inflow. While very small in amount, it represents an important positive
development for a market shaken by default talks and dire forecasts
made late last year by influential analyst Meredith Whitney.

The wave of outflows started with redemptions of $115 million in
the November 10, 2010 week, peaked at $5.7 billion in the January 19,
2011 week and were at $275 million in the May 4 week.

Redemptions have totaled $45.3 billion between the November 10 week
and the May 4 week.

Still, in an op-ed titled ‘The Hidden State Financial Crisis’ in
the Wall Street Journal Wednesday, Whitney stuck to her dire
projections.

“The condition of state finances threatens the economic recovery,”
she wrote.

“Even as states have made deep cuts in some social programs, their
fixed expenses of debt service and the actuarially recommended minimum
pension and other retirement payments have skyrocketed,” she pointed
out.

Besides, “it is clear that their debt burdens are grossly
understated,” she said, referring to states obligations related to
pensions and other retirements benefits.

“Defaults in a variety of forms by states and municipalities are
already happening and more are inevitable,” she continued.

“Taxpayers have borne the initial brunt of these defaults by paying
higher taxes in exchange for lower social services,” the analyst said.
“And state and local government employees are having to renegotiate
labor contracts that they once believed were sacrosanct.”

As to municipal bond holders, they “will experience their own form
of contract renegotiation in the form of debt restructurings at the
local level. These are just the facts.”

For now, the municipal bond market is enjoying a rally, fresh cash
inflows and lower yields, although some point out the rally could be
partly due to the small activity on the supply as at the moment.

In the taxable bond market, the ICI’s flow estimates — derived
from data covering more than 95% of industry assets and adjusted to
represent industry totals — showed Wednesday a $4.0 billion inflow in
the week ended May 11, the ninth in a row.

Inflows to taxable bond funds have totaled $69.2 billion since the
week ended December 29, 2010.

Over the same period, long-term municipal bond funds have
registered $27.5 billion in redemptions.

** Market News International Washington Bureau: 202-371-2121 **

[TOPICS: MNUEQ$,M$U$$$,M$$FI$,MFU$$$]