US inflation data due Thursday - CPI preview

Author: Eamonn Sheridan | Category: News

I posted a preview of the US data due 11 October 2018 at 1230GMT here earlier:

A few more now (although I do wonder if anyone cares given equities panic :-(  ):

  • Core CPI inflation at 0.08% MoM in August was weaker than expected due to weaker pass throughs from tariffs. Despite the downward surprise, our outlook remains for core price inflation to stabilize around the Fed's 2.0% target due to the upward surprise in wage inflation. Friday, October 12
Morgan Stanley:
  • see headline inflation rising 0.16% m/m in September. and core rising 0.19% m/m
The headline CPI could have advanced by 0.2% for a third straight month in September, perhaps propelled primarily by a solid 0.2% increase in the core rate (CPI ex food and energy). 
  • We expect food an energy costs to have moved only modestly (in opposing directions) last month. 
  • On a year/year basis, we look for headline inflation to have edged lower from 2.9% in August to 2.7%, on account of a high base effect from last September ( when the headline jumped by 0.5% m/m). 
In contrast, core inflation could have ticked back up from 2.2% in August to 2.3% last month
  • Away from food and energy, we expect the core CPI to have bounced back with a "high" 0.2% gain in September. On an unrounded basis, we look for a September reading of 0.228%, slightly above the year-to-date monthly average gain of 0.183% and well above the August reading of 0.082% (the weakest unrounded monthly gain since March 2017).

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