Jobless claims slow but still showing elevated levels
- initial jobless claims 2438K vs. 2400K estimate. Down from last week 2687K (was originally 2981K)
- 4 week moving average initial jobless claims 3042K vs 3543K last week
- continuing claims 25073K vs 24250K estimate
- 4 week moving average of continuing claims to 22002.25K vs 19688.75K last week
- the total claims since mid March is now around -38.7 million
The trends continue with jobless claims still increasing but at a slower pace. As the reopening continues, there should be further declines in weekly initial claims. Can they go positive again? At some point but with the numbers still mid 2M, they have a ways to go still.
The Wall Street Journal today had a article about how self-employed people are not being included in the initial claims data but are indeed receiving benefits as a result of temporary stimulus program as a result of the coronavirus. So although the numbers are still shocking, they are actually worse. I don't know if the article is blocked from nonsubscribers, but here is the link: CLICK HERE.
