Continuing claims 1740K vs 1689K estimate

  • initial jobless claims rise to 231K from a revised 221K last week. The estimate was 220K
  • continuing claims were also higher at 1740K versus 1689K estimate.
  • Prior week claims was revised higher to 221K from 216K
  • continuing claims also revised higher to 1708K from 1701K
  • the four-week average fell to 218.75K vs a revised 219.25K (was 218K)
  • The largest increases in initial claims for the week ending December 22 were in New Jersey (+6,248), Pennsylvania (+3,053), Missouri (+2,555), Massachusetts (+2,212), and Ohio (+2,164),
  • The largest decreases were in Michigan (-846), Florida (-462), Louisiana (-246), Arizona (-156), and Maine (-149).

The holiday season tends to make the numbers more volatile and the partial government shutdown may have led to federal workers requesting funds (they will get paid in arrears after the shutdown is figured out, but there may be some mechanism to get paid anyway). A total of 350K of federal workers have been impacted by the shutdown. However, the details on jobless claims by federal employees are reported with a lag. So the impact from the shutdown is really not fully known.