January 2020 non-farm payrolls highlights:
- Prior was +145K (revised to +147K)
- Annual revisions cut 514K jobs from 2018-2019 payrolls
- Estimates ranged from +120K to +202K
- Two month net revision +7K
- Unemployment rate 3.6% vs 3.5% expected
- Participation rate 63.4% vs 63.2% prior
- Avg hourly earnings +0.2% m/m vs +0.3% exp
- Prior avg hourly earnings +0.1%
- Avg hourly earnings +3.1% y/y vs +3.0% exp
- Prior avg hourly earnings 2.9%
- Avg weekly hours 34.3 vs 34.4 exp
- Private payrolls +206K vs +155K exp
- Manufacturing -12K vs -2K exp
- U6 underemployment 6.9% vs 6.7% prior
Hiring picked up in January in another good sign for the US economy and the US dollar. The monthly earnings number is a tad on the soft side but the y/y data point was stronger. The Fed will be encouraged by the rise in labor force participation and see that as validation for keeping rates low.
The US dollar initially rose on the report but only for a moment.
Part of the reason is that mediocre wage number along with the uptick in unemployment. I would look past both of those things.
The other factor was the big revision lower in 2018-2019 jobs. January data brings benchmark revisions and 514K fewer jobs makes the economy less-strong than believed, making a substantial dent in last year's numbers down to 2.1 million jobs. 2018 was revised to 2.31m jobs from 2.68m. That means that 2016 was still the best recent year for US jobs.
Here's a great chart from ZeroHedge, the revisions for a stretch in late-2018 were particularly large and consistent.
