US retail sales at 13.30 GMT will give us an idea

Us retail sales we're less than impressive in 2015 and there's no signs to say that's going to improve anytime soon.

US retail sales y/y

There's nothing exciting about the expectations for today. Sales are expected in at +0.1% vs -0.1% prior m/m, flat in sales ex-autos vs -0.1% in Dec, and the control group (core sales) are expected to rise 0.3% vs -0.3% prior m/m.

What do we know about the US consumer?

They've been busy beavers saving away any spare cash they have. Good news for them but not such great news for the retail sector. The fact that they haven't been splashing out shows that the current wage growth isn't giving them confidence enough to think that incomes are going to increase, and be sustainable. Unless everyone in the US found $100 on the street, there's not much to say the numbers today will break any records.

The stock market falls could also put a kibosh on sales in Jan. If you're not spending because you're saving, and if some of your savings are in stocks, entering the new year and seeing big red numbers on your portfolio almost everyday doesn't exactly entice you to go out and treat the family to a slap up meal or new car. Quite the opposite could happen and the wallets get pushed a little deeper into pockets.

But who knows? Retail sales can be a volatile number sometimes. The snowy weather blast could have increased clothing sales, and they could have restricted sales further as people stayed at home.

Probably the best trade on retail sales is to fade a big jump in sales. If it's a big upward beat the dollar will rise but it's going to take more than one good report, and more than this data set, to change people's view on the economy and the Fed. A big miss will see the dollar drop which could then translate into further stock losses, which leads to more dollar losses and so on and so forth. But, remember this is only retail sales so don't be looking for any 100 pip moves on it (go on, make me eat my words)

This time last year the sales report fell 1% m/m, following -0.7% in Dec. This December wasn't anything special either and Dec is always the big report of the year

It all happens in around an hour and also out are the latest import and export prices. All the details can be found on our calendar above