–Continuing Claims Level -15k To 3.273 Mln In The September 29 Week

By Ian McKendry

WASHINGTON (MNI) – Initial claims for U.S. state unemployment
benefits fell by 30,000 to 339,000 in the October 6 week, the lowest
level seen since February 16, 2008 when claims were also 339,000, the
Labor Department reported Thursday.

The median estimate of economists surveyed by MNI was for 365,000,
a decrease of 2,000 from the initially reported 367,000 level in the
September 29 week. That week’s claims level was revised up by 2,000 to
369,000.

A Labor Department analyst said that seasonal factors expected a
decline of 18.3% in unadjusted claims in the October 6 week. Instead,
unadjusted claims fell just 8.6% to a level of 327,063 in the current
week. Unadjusted claims were at a level of 405,906 in the comparable
week a year ago.

The analyst noted that there were no special factors in the current
week’s data and no states were estimated, but said there tends to be
more volatility when the seasonal adjustment is expecting large swings
in claims.

The initial claims seasonally adjusted 4-week moving average was
364,000 in the October 6 week.

The state data released for the September 29 week indicated
unadjusted initial claims increased in 28 states and declined in 25
states, with no states unchanged. The District of Columbia, Puerto Rico,
and Virgin Islands are included in this data.

Continuing claims came in at 3.273 million after seasonal
adjustment in the September 29 week, unchanged from the previous week.

Unadjusted continuing claims fell by 42,837 to 2,778,396 in the
week, and remains below the 3,113,245 level in the comparable week a
year ago.

The seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate held steady at
2.6%, as it has since March, and is still down from the 2.9% rate in the
comparable week a year earlier.

The unemployment rate among the insured labor force is well below
that reported monthly by the Labor Department because claims are
approved for the most part only for job losers, not the job leavers and
labor force reentrants included in the monthly report.

The Labor Department said that the level of unadjusted Emergency
Unemployment Compensation benefits claims fell by 36,977 in the
September 22 week, bringing that category total to 2,106,072.

Extended benefits claims rose by 13,802 to 35,186 in the September
22 week, due to the state of New York returning to the program starting
September 9.

The extended benefits program pays claims after a person has
exhausted regular uenmployment benefits and the four tiers of Emergency
Unemployment Claims. The program provides benefits for an additional 13
weeks but some states can volunteer to pay extended benefits for an
addtional 7 weeks for a total of 20 weeks.

The extended benefits program can be triggered if a state has an
unemployment rate above 8% and is more than 110% of that states
unemployment rate in one of the three previous years. New York is the
only state now eligible for this program, as Idaho dropped off recently.

The Labor Department reported that a total of 5,044,649 persons
claimed unemployment benefits in the September 22 week, a decline of
43,970 from the previous week and still well below the 6,819,938 persons
in the comparable week a year ago. These data are not seasonally
adjusted, and include regular state claims, federal employee claims, new
veterans claims, the EUC and extended benefits programs, state
additional benefits, and STC/Workshare claims.

** MNI Washington Bureau: 202-371-2121 **

[TOPICS: MAUDS$,MT$$$$,M$U$$$,MAUDR$]