–Analyst: No States Estimated, Nothing Unusual In State-level Data
–Four-Wk Moving Average Falls To 365,250; Claims at Lowest Since Mar’08

By Denny Gulino and Kevin Kastner

WASHINGTON (MNI) – Initial claims for U.S. state unemployment
benefits fell by 13,000 to 348,000 in the February 11 week, well below
expectations in a time of year of heightened volatility, the Labor
Department reported Thursday.

Economists surveyed by Market News International had expected
initial claims to come in at 365,000, up 7,000 from the initially
reported 358,000 level. That week’s claims were revised up to 361,000.

A Labor Department analyst said there were no states were estimated
and there was nothing unusual in the state data. However, the claims
series is still in an early-year period of heightened volatility as the
not-seasonally-adjusted totals come down from their usual peak in mid
January. The NSA moderation usually extends to Easter.

Seasonal factors had expected a decline of about 25,600 or
6.4% unadjusted claims in the week. Instead, unadjusted claims fell
39,328 in the February 11 week to a level of 361,928. Unadjusted
claims were at a level of 424,400 in the comparable week a year
earlier.

The initial claims seasonally adjusted 4-week moving average, which
the Labor analyst said becomes a better guide during periods of high
volatility, was 365,250 in the February 11 week, a decline of 1,750 from
the previous week and the lowest level since 361,500 in the April 26
2008 week.

The state data released for the Feb. 4 week indicated unadjusted
initial claims increased in nine states and declined in 44 states. The
District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, and Virgin Islands are included in
this data.

Continuing claims declined 100,000 to 3.426 million after seasonal
adjustment in the Feb. 4 week, the lowest since the Aug. 23, 2008 week.
Unadjusted continuing claims dropped 133,493 to 3,964,007 in the Feb. 4
week, down from the 4,575,640 level in the comparable week a year
earlier.

The seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate slipped back down
a tenth to 2.7% in the Feb. 4 week. The rate was 3.2% in the comparable
week a year earlier.

The unemployment rate among the insured labor force is well below
that reported monthly by the Labor Department because claims are
approved for the most part only for job losers, not the job leavers and
labor force reentrants included in the monthly report.

The Labor Department said that the level of unadjusted Emergency
Unemployment Compensation benefits claims rose by 16,568 in the Feb. 4
week, bringing that category to 3,002,475. Extended benefits claims
dropped by 39,360 to 475,331 not seasonally adjusted in the same week.

The Labor Department reported that a total of 7,681,911 persons
claimed unemployment benefits in the January 28 week, a rise of 18,304
from the previous week, but still well below the 9,248,762 persons in
the comparable week a year ago. These data are not seasonally adjusted,
and include regular state claims, federal employee claims, new veterans
claims, the EUC and extended benefits programs, state additional
benefits, and STC/Workshare claims.

** Market News International Washington Bureau: 202-371-2121 **

[TOPICS: MAUDS$,MT$$$$,M$U$$$,MAUDR$]