US June inflation data

  • Prior was +2.8%
  • Ex food and energy +2.3% vs +2.3% y/y expected
  • Prior ex food and energy 2.2% y/y

m/m data

  • CPI +0.1% vs +0.2% expected
  • Prior +0.2%
  • CPI ex food and energy +0.2% vs +0.2% expected
  • Prior ex food and energy +0.2%

Wages:

  • Real avg weekly earnings +0.2% y/y vs +0.3% prior
  • Real avg hourly earnings y/y 0.0% vs 0.0% prior

There were no revisions to the prior data. When you look at the numbers, there isn't much to be worried about in terms of inflation. Yes, some of the headlines are high but for all the talk of higher wages, earnings were virtually flat after inflation. June also marks the high-water mark for some one-off factors that Janet Yellen was famous for touting so aside from energy prices, there is some deflationary pressure about to hit the y/y data.

y/y core: