March US retail sales data

US March advance retail sales
  • Prior was -3.0%
  • Retail sales ex auto +8.4% vs +5.0% expected
  • Retail sales ex auto and gas +8.2% vs +6.4% expected
  • Retail sales control group +6.9% vs +7.2% expected
  • Sales up 14.3% from the same period a year ago vs +6.3% prior
  • Motor vehicle sales and parts +15.1% m/m
  • Full report

Prior numbers and revisions

  • February retail sales -3.0% (revised to -2.7%)
  • February retail sales ex auto and gas -3.3% (revised to -3.1%)
  • February retail sales control group -3.5% (revised to -3.4%)

The headline is extremely strong but some of that was baked in after a jump in new car sales in the month that should have already been priced in. The control group metric is better at stripping out some of the one-off metrics and it was a tad below consensus so that almost balances it out.

At the end of the day though, we have retail sales up almost 10% and the control group up 6.9%. That's strong any way you slice it.

Looking through the categories, there's nothing remotely negative with only food and beverage stores below 1% and that's assuredly because people resumed eating out.

retail sales details