US minimum wage decision could come down at any time
How the decision will be made
This US political world is waiting on Elizabeth MacDonough.
That's the Parliamentarian of the US Senate. It's her job to determine whether or not a minimum wage hike falls within the Byrd Rule.
If it can't be passed via reconciliation, it will need to pass the full Senate and get 60 votes to avoid a filibuster. That's a tall order at anything close to $15/hour.
The mood is bad in stocks right now but it will get worse if she rules that it's ok to include in the stimulus bill. Biden himself sounded skeptical that would be the case and he knows the Senate rules as well as anyone. Most of the people who understand these things feel the same way, but we won't know until the announcement.
More on MacDonough at the NYT.