Employment report due on 4 October 1230GMT

Westpac preview:

  • headline +160k
  • unemployment rate 3.7%
  • hourly earnings 3.3% y/y
  • Nonfarm payrolls employment has undergone a material deceleration in 2019
  • we anticipate this downtrend will persist
  • month-to-month volatility will see a stronger outcome in Sep
  • unemployment rate is unlikely to move materially higher, thanks to the FOMC's rate cuts and low term interest rates

UBS preview

  • expecting a 139kchange vs 145k, albeit these expectations still reflect an improvement from the previous month's print.
  • pace is consistent with underlying weakness in the US economy
  • While the effects from the tariffs imposed in 2018 continue to fade, we see the effects of 2019 tariffs applied in May, June, and September as increasingly weighing on US activity

ASB/CBA:

  • low level of US jobless claims and the pick-up in temporary employment suggest another solid increase in Nonfarm Payrolls of 140,000
  • unemployment 3.7%
  • very low inflation expectations suggest average earnings decelerated slightly to 3.1% y/y