GS is looking for a very strong US labour market report Friday 7 May 2021
- estimate nonfarm payrolls rose 1,300k in April (m/m sa)
- estimate a five-tenths decline in the unemployment rate to 5.5%, reflecting rapid job gains partially offset by an expected rise in the participation rate
- estimate a flat monthly reading for average hourly earnings ... due to negative composition and calendar effects; coupled with the anniversary of the spring 2020 lockdowns, we estimate the year-on-year rate will plummet from +4.2% to -0.4%.
GS track a series of job market indicators leading them to their well above consensus forecast:
Data due at 1230 GMT
- consensus median estimate is +1000k, prior +916k
- jobless rate expected 5.8%, prior 6.0%
