US nonfarm payroll report due on Friday 7 December 2018 , preview

Author: Eamonn Sheridan | Category: News

Earlier previews from Goldman Sachs and others are here:

Westpac provide this:
  • The average monthly gain for nonfarm payrolls has been very steady this year. On a 3 and 6 month basis, and for the year to date, the month-average pace is 218k, 216k and 213k respectively. All of these outcomes are well above the pace necessary to keep the unemployment rate unchanged, indicating demand for labour remains strong
  • This strength in employment will see downward pressure remain on the unemployment rate, though the next step lower is more likely in a few months time than November
  • Hourly earnings have been picking up momentum over the past year and, given full employment, this is expected to continue. An annual rate a little above 3.0%yr is expected near term, before a further firming to circa 3.5% mid-2019
Their forecasts for the headline results:
  • 200k jobs
  • 3.7% unemployment
  • hourly earnings 3.2% y/y

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