US retail sales numbers for November 2018:
Prior was +0.8% (revised to +1.1%)
Control group +0.9% vs +0.4% exp
Prior control group +0.3% (revised to +0.7%)
Ex autos +0.2% vs +0.2% exp
Prior ex autos +0.7% vs +1.1% prior
Ex autos and gas +0.5% vs +0.4% expected
Prior ex autos and gas +0.3% (revised to +0.7%)
This is a great report and should give the US dollar another kick higher. The trouble is that risk assets might not like it because it could put the Fed back on a hiking path.
One thing I worry is about a secular shift towards earlier Christmas shopping because of the Black Friday barrage of advertising and discounting. US Thanksgiving was also early so it pulled it ahead. Last November's report was also strong and it's something I talked about then.
Still, that's two months in a row of very strong readings.
Looking into the details, the category for 'non-store retailers' was very strong. That contains online sales and it was up 10.4% y/y and 22% m/m, or 2.3% seasonally adjusted. Gasoline store sales fell 2.3% which is no surprise given falling prices but most categories were strong.
